Staff economists cite Fulcrum research team in paper describing new approach

NEW YORK, NY, September 22, 2023 /24-7PressRelease/ — Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists gave the econometric version of a shoutout to Fulcrum Asset Management when they unveiled a revamped version of the bank’s real time GDP “nowcasting” model, Fulcrum announced today. Nowcasting refers to the use of advanced statistical models and large amounts of data to obtain early predictions of important economic indicators such as GDP well before they are officially published. The prominent Federal Reserve member bank, which had suspended its Nowcast in late 2021 because of modelling challenges arising from the pandemic, described the new methodology in a staff paper that acknowledges the importance of several key features first developed in 2017 by the Fulcrum research team, led by Juan Antolin-Diaz, Thomas Drechsel and Ivan Petrella.

“Our Research team continue engaging with the academic and central banking community to help push the frontier of economic modelling and to make us better macro investors,” said Managing Partner Joe Davidson. “It’s immensely gratifying to see their work cited prominently by staff of the New York Federal Reserve Bank and I am immensely proud of what Fulcrum has achieved.”

Fulcrum’s research has led to several advances in modelling and computation of GDP nowcasts, leading to publication in peer-reviewed journals which have now become the gold standard for these types of techniques. In particular, the modelling of time variation in the trend growth and the volatility of the economy, was first proposed in Antolin-Diaz, Drechsel and Petrella (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2017) and incorporated in Fulcrum’s nowcasts in 2015.

The incorporation of richer lead-lag dynamics in the propagation of macroeconomic shocks and including an outlier detection procedure, is discussed in Antolin-Diaz, Drechsel and Petrella (currently in review for the Journal of Econometrics, 2022), and adopted by Fulcrum in 2017.

Fulcrum’s research puts this academic knowledge into practice. The nowcasting program informs the investment process by providing timely and accurate assessments of economic activity that are employed heavily across Fulcrum’s discretionary and quantitative investment strategies.

About Fulcrum Asset Management (LLP)

Fulcrum Asset Management specialises in managing a range of macro-oriented investment products, with the objective of delivering positive returns irrespective of market conditions. Guided by innovative macro research, a disciplined investment process and effective risk management, our aim to be our clients’ most trusted long-term partner.

Fulcrum’s highly innovative investment approach employs both discretionary and systematic inputs that are supported by extensive in-house research. Being unconstrained by benchmarks, Fulcrum provides investment solutions with the ability to align products with a client’s specific risk appetite. All of our strategies offer transparency, liquidity and competitive fee structures.

Founded in 2004, the firm manages £6.6bn / USD$8.3* bn on behalf of a global client base including institutions and wealth managers. Fulcrum is a signatory to the UNPRI along with a number of significant organisations across the global that embrace sustainability as part of their core objective.

*As at end August 2023

Any views and opinions expressed are for informational and/or similarly educational purposes only and are a reflection of the author’s best judgment, based upon information available at the time obtained from sources believed to be reliable and providing information in good faith, but no responsibility is accepted for any errors or omissions. The information contained herein is only as current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. The information in this document has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, Fulcrum Asset Management LLP (“Fulcrum”) does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. Reproduction of this material in whole or in part is strictly prohibited without prior written permission of Fulcrum.

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